The average forecast of analysts, compiled by ForexFactory. It is the market's expectation, not a certain number.
When red news comes out, and why price moves
Every month there are a few evenings when gold and the dollar run in one direction for 3 minutes. That is when red-news releases come out. This page covers the 9 strongest US releases: when they come out (in Vietnam time, GMT+7), which agency publishes them, which mechanism carries them to price — and why that mechanism often does not play out.
// RED_NEWS
The 9 highest-impact US economic releases
Ordered by how strongly the market usually reacts. Click each release to see how to read it in detail.
VERY HIGH IMPACTNFP
Non-Farm PayrollsNon-Farm Employment ChangeThe most awaited release of the month. One release contains 3 numbers at once, and all three can move price.
How to read this releaseVERY HIGH IMPACTCPI
Consumer Price IndexConsumer Price IndexThe most watched inflation measure. While the Fed is still worried about inflation, CPI hits harder than even NFP.
How to read this releaseVERY HIGH IMPACTFOMC
Fed interest rate decisionFederal Funds Rate · FOMC StatementNot a number but an evening. The statement, then the projections, then the press conference — 3 waves of volatility a few dozen minutes apart.
How to read this releaseHIGH IMPACTCore PCE
Core PCE Price IndexCore PCE Price IndexThe inflation measure the Fed itself targets. Less famous than CPI but more important for policy.
How to read this releaseHIGH IMPACTPPI
Producer Price IndexProducer Price IndexInflation at the producer stage. It comes out near CPI with a weaker impact, but it is an early clue for core PCE.
How to read this releaseHIGH IMPACT
Retail SalesRetail SalesAre Americans still spending? Consumption is about two thirds of the US economy, so this is a direct health check.
How to read this releaseHIGH IMPACTGDP
Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic ProductThe overall measure of the whole economy. Important by nature but slow to arrive, so the market reacts moderately.
How to read this releaseHIGH IMPACTISM PMI
ISM PMIISM Manufacturing PMI · ISM Services PMIA survey of purchasing managers. It comes out first in the month and is the first release to show how last month went.
How to read this releaseMEDIUM IMPACT
Unemployment ClaimsUnemployment ClaimsThe highest-frequency release in the labor group. A single week means little, but the 4-week trend does.
How to read this release// THIS_WEEK
High-impact releases this week
Pulled directly from the ForexFactory calendar, with times converted to GMT+7. The forecast column is the level the market is waiting for, compiled by ForexFactory — not a DinexSpace prediction.
19 Oct
- 19:30CADCPI m/mforecast 0.2%previous -0.1%
- 19:30CADMedian CPI y/yforecast 2.0%previous 2.0%
- 19:30CADTrimmed CPI y/yforecast 1.9%previous 1.9%
21 Oct
- 13:00GBPCPI y/yforecast 3.4%previous 3.1%
22 Oct
- 04:45NZDCPI q/qforecast 0.8%previous 1.5%
Calendar source: ForexFactory · only high-impact events shown · times converted to GMT+7.
// FORECASTS
If you are looking for “this month's CPI prediction”
DinexSpace does not publish its own predictions, and you should be wary of any site that does. Nobody knows the data in advance — including the big banks, which publish forecasts and are often wrong.
What really exists and is usable is the level the market is waiting for: the average forecast of analysts, compiled by ForexFactory and shown in the forecast column of the calendar. Its value is not that it is correct, but that it tells you what the market expects — because price reacts to the GAP between the actual number and the expectation, not to the number itself.
In other words: a 3.1% CPI print is neither good nor bad. It is bad news if the market was waiting for 2.9%, and good news if the market was waiting for 3.3%. That is the whole reason the forecast column exists.
// READING_THE_CALENDAR
What the 4 columns on the economic calendar mean
Misreading the forecast column is the most common reason people are surprised by how price reacts.
The actual number from the previous release. If it is revised in the new release, the revision itself is news.
The real number when it is released. The gap between actual and forecast is what moves price.
ForexFactory labels it high, medium or low. High-impact items are the releases often called red news.
// BOUNDARIES
What this page does and does not do
Yes: the calendar and release rules
The releasing agency, frequency, and Vietnam time (GMT+7) for both US summer and winter time. This is fixed information you can check on the statistics agency's site.
Yes: how the impact works
Why a labor number pushes the gold price, and through which steps. It describes the mechanism, along with why that mechanism often does not play out.
No: data predictions
DinexSpace does not publish its own prediction for any release. The forecast column on the calendar is the level the market is waiting for, compiled by ForexFactory, always with its source.
No: trade recommendations
This page does not say whether to buy or sell around a release. It says how unusual trading conditions are around release times, so you can decide for yourself.
// FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What is red news on the economic calendar?
These are events marked high impact on the economic calendar, usually shown in red or with a 3-bar icon. The label says the event has historically caused significant price moves right after release. For the US dollar, the familiar red-news group includes Non-Farm Payrolls, the Consumer Price Index, Fed rate decisions and the core PCE price index.
Which release is the strongest of the month?
Usually Non-Farm Payrolls and the Consumer Price Index, along with the Fed's rate meetings. But the order changes by phase: when the market worries about inflation, CPI hits hardest; when it worries about recession, labor data comes first.
Why does price still move strongly when the data matches the forecast?
Because the forecast on the calendar is the analysts' average, while the market's actual positioning can be far from that average. In addition, one release often contains several numbers; the headline can match the forecast while the components or the revisions to old data surprise.
Do release times change by season?
Yes. The US uses summer time from roughly March to November, so every Vietnam-time (GMT+7) slot shifts by an hour between the 2 seasons. For example, a release at 8:30 a.m. New York time falls at 19:30 Vietnam time in summer and 20:30 in winter.
Should I switch my EA off around news releases?
That is the operator's decision and depends on the system. The reason to consider it is purely technical: around strong releases, spreads widen, orders slip, and stop-losses can fill far from the level set. That means the real risk of a trade in that window is larger than the risk you calculated when designing the system.
Do DinexSpace's EAs read the news calendar to avoid releases?
No. The 9 EAs run on their own rules and do not read the economic calendar. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page. Switching them on or off around releases is the operator's manual decision.
You know the release times; you still need a set of rules
See the available EA Trading Bots The calendar tells you when to stay out. The wider macro context is on the economic cycle clock. Entering trades still needs a system with rules.