Federal Funds Rate · FOMC Statement
Not a number but an evening. The statement, then the projections, then the press conference — 3 waves of volatility a few dozen minutes apart.
Calendar rule: Statement at 2:00 p.m. New York time, press conference at 2:30 p.m. — that is, the press conference at 01:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) in summer and 02:30 in winter.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
There is not enough source data from FRED to run the model right now. When there is not enough data, no number is published.
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
The Fed signals keeping rates high for longer, or the dot plot shifts up compared with last time.
The dollar strengthens, gold comes under pressure. A special note for FOMC night: the move at the statement and the move at the press conference 30 minutes later can be completely opposite, because the Fed Chair answers without a script.
XAUUSD▼DXY▲USDJPY▲US500▼BTCUSD▼The rate level has usually been guessed correctly weeks in advance. With no surprise in the number, the market scrutinizes the wording.
Volatility can still be large, because what is not yet in the price is the tone, not the number. This is why 'the Fed holds rates' and price still moves strongly.
XAUUSD•DXY•USDJPY•US500•BTCUSD•The Fed leans toward easing sooner, or lowers its rate projections for the coming years.
The dollar usually weakens, gold and risk assets are supported. This is the scenario with the longest-lasting reaction, because it changes the whole path, not just one number.
XAUUSD▲DXY▼USDJPY▼US500▲BTCUSD▲The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
The release calendar could not be loaded from FRED yet.
9 EAs for rent, all trading XAUUSD. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page. Look at the backtest figures before you decide.
See the 9 EA Trading Bots for rentDo you want to trade around FOMC, or stay out? DinexSpace writes exactly that set of rules, with a time filter based on the release calendar.
Order an EA for this releaseThe Fed announces its policy rate and an explanatory statement. Four of the 8 meetings each year (March, June, September, December) come with economic projections, including the dot plot showing where each member thinks rates will be in the coming years. 30 minutes after the statement is the Fed Chair's press conference.
This is the only event where cause and effect meet: every other economic release is just a guess at what the Fed will do, while here the Fed says it directly. And usually the rate level has been correctly guessed in advance — what moves the market is the wording of the statement and the tone of the press conference.
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
A more hawkish tone than expected (keeping rates high for longer) → the dollar strengthens, gold comes under pressure. More dovish than expected → the opposite. But the biggest move on FOMC night often does not happen at 01:00 but at 01:30, when the Fed Chair answers questions — and its direction can be the complete opposite of the reaction half an hour earlier.
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
Usually guessed by the market almost with certainty. A surprise here is rare but huge.
The market compares it word by word with the previous meeting. A phrase that is dropped is also a signal.
Only at the 4 meetings with projections. It shows where members think rates are going — often the part that moves the market most.
30 minutes after the statement. Unscripted, and this is when the second reversal often happens.
FOMC night has at least 2 waves of volatility half an hour apart. Closing positions after the first wave and going to bed is how many people lose gains they already had.
01:00 Vietnam time is when few people are alert. Hasty decisions made while sleepy cost far more than any edge gained.
By then the US session is past its liquidity peak. The same volume of orders moves price further.
FOMC night falls right in the window when many EAs still hold open positions. If your system holds trades overnight, this is the night to review the risk per trade — not because the direction will be wrong, but because the range during those few hours is unlike the rest of the month.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
The statement is at 01:00 Vietnam time (GMT+7) during US summer time or 02:00 in winter, with the press conference 30 minutes later. The Fed publishes the schedule of its 8 meetings for the whole year in advance.
Because the rate level has usually been correctly guessed by the market weeks earlier and is already in the price. What is not yet in the price is the statement wording, the dot plot and the tone of the press conference — that is the part that creates volatility.
It is a chart in the economic projections where each dot shows one Fed member's expectation for the appropriate rate in the coming years. It is not a commitment, but it is how the market reads the Fed's intentions. It only appears at the March, June, September and December meetings.
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
The most watched inflation measure. While the Fed is still worried about inflation, CPI hits harder than even NFP.
How to read this releaseThe most awaited release of the month. One release contains 3 numbers at once, and all three can move price.
How to read this releaseThe inflation measure the Fed itself targets. Less famous than CPI but more important for policy.
How to read this releaseKnowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
