Core PCE Price Index
The inflation measure the Fed itself targets. Less famous than CPI but more important for policy.
Calendar rule: End of the month, usually on or near the last business day, 8:30 a.m. New York time.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
Read this carefully: The winning model for Core PCE Price Index is “keep the previous value” — meaning that on this series no simple model guesses the direction better than not guessing. The 50/50 probability here is a real conclusion, not a blank.
This is a statistical estimate from public data, not an internal forecast and not a trading recommendation. Every step can be repeated: take the series from FRED, apply the formula above, and calculate the error over the stated window.
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
The inflation measure the Fed itself targets is off course. This is the data the Fed looks at when it decides.
The same mechanism as CPI but usually with a smaller range, because by the time PCE comes out the market has estimated it fairly accurately from CPI and PPI.
XAUUSD▼~0.55%DXY▲~0.17%EURUSD▼~0.16%USDJPY▲~0.23%BTCUSD▼~0.66%It confirms the existing picture. No change in expectations.
In most months, PCE is a dull release. Entering trades waiting for a big move here usually just pays trading fees.
XAUUSD•DXY•EURUSD•USDJPY•BTCUSD•Inflation returns toward the 2% target faster than expected, strengthening the case for cuts.
The dollar weakens, gold is supported. The reaction only becomes significant if the number deviates a lot from the estimate derived from CPI.
XAUUSD▲~0.55%DXY▼~0.17%EURUSD▲~0.16%USDJPY▼~0.23%BTCUSD▲~0.66%The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
USDJPYSLIGHTLY SENSITIVEDXYSLIGHTLY SENSITIVEIt reacts, but usually briefly.
EURUSDSLIGHTLY SENSITIVEGood liquidity and low slippage, suitable for observing a clean dollar reaction.
BTCUSDSLIGHTLY SENSITIVEIts link to US macro is much looser than gold's and currencies', and it changes by phase: in some periods it moves with tech stocks as a risk asset, in others it almost ignores macro news. Do not read it as a version of gold.
XAUUSDALMOST UNCHANGEDThe same channel as CPI, but usually with a smaller range because most of the information was already in the price from CPI.
Measured over 24 tháng gần nhất: take the 1-hour candle containing the exact release time, calculate its high–low range, then compare it with the median range of the same hour on days without news. It is compared with the same hour rather than the daily average, because 19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) is already when the US session opens. Source: FRED · lịch công bố chính thức · Yahoo Finance · nến 1 giờ. These are past measurements, not a prediction of the next range.
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Order an EA for this releaseThe personal consumption expenditures price index, core component. It differs from CPI in how weights are calculated: PCE lets consumers switch to substitutes when prices rise, so it is usually lower than CPI. When the Fed talks about a 2% inflation target, that 2% refers to core PCE, not CPI.
This is the official measure in the Fed's target. It comes out after CPI, so most of its content has already been estimated by the market from CPI and PPI — which is why the reaction is usually smaller than for CPI, unless it deviates a lot from that estimate.
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
The same chain as CPI: higher-than-forecast core inflation → the Fed is more cautious about cutting rates → the dollar is supported. The difference is that PCE rarely produces a big surprise, because by the time it comes out the market already has CPI and PPI in hand.
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
The first number the market looks at. Around 0.17% a month corresponds to 2% a year.
The number compared with the Fed's 2% target.
Released in the same report. It shows whether people still have money to spend — the part that is often ignored.
The two indices are calculated differently and PCE is usually lower. Comparing the two numbers directly leads to the wrong conclusion.
In most months, PCE is a dull release because CPI already anticipated it. Entering trades waiting for a big move usually just pays fees.
Less concerning than CPI and NFP. But it falls at the end of the month, when many people review their results — knowing there was a release that day helps read one off-pattern day correctly instead of drawing hasty conclusions about the system.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
Because PCE has broader coverage and updates its weights more often, reflecting consumers switching to cheaper goods when prices rise. The Fed believes this describes the real cost of living more closely.
The Fed's target is 2% a year for core PCE. Monthly, around 0.17% corresponds to a 2% annual pace.
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
The most watched inflation measure. While the Fed is still worried about inflation, CPI hits harder than even NFP.
How to read this releaseInflation at the producer stage. It comes out near CPI with a weaker impact, but it is an early clue for core PCE.
How to read this releaseNot a number but an evening. The statement, then the projections, then the press conference — 3 waves of volatility a few dozen minutes apart.
How to read this releaseKnowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
