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VERY HIGH IMPACT
Consumer Price Index · CPI
Consumer Price Index
The most watched inflation measure. While the Fed is still worried about inflation, CPI hits harder than even NFP.
Released by
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Frequency
Once a month
GMT+7 · US summer time
19:30 GMT+7
GMT+7 · US winter time
20:30 GMT+7
Calendar rule: Usually between the 10th and 15th of the month, 8:30 a.m. New York time.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
Next release in2026-11-10 at 20:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7)
Model estimate4.02%68% confidence interval: 3.68% → 4.36%
Previous (actual)4.02%2026-09-01
Market expectation—not yet on the ForexFactory calendar this week
Probabilities, calculated from the historical error distribution of this model itself
Above the previous release50%
Below the previous release50%
Read this carefully: The winning model for Consumer Price Index is “keep the previous value” — meaning that on this series no simple model guesses the direction better than not guessing. The 50/50 probability here is a real conclusion, not a blank.
Số công bố = phần trăm thay đổi so với cùng kỳ năm trước
Average error in backtesting
±0.312 percentage points over 60 periods
Direction guessed right
not applicable
History window
the last 60 periods
3 models tested, ranked by error
Bước ngẫu nhiên (giữ nguyên kỳ trước)±0.312chosen
Kỳ trước cộng đà 3 kỳ±0.32
Trung bình trượt 3 kỳ±0.472
The 6 latest periods fed into the model
2026-04-013.95%
2026-05-014.27%
2026-06-013.73%
2026-07-013.54%
2026-08-013.71%
2026-09-014.02%
This is a statistical estimate from public data, not an internal forecast and not a trading recommendation. Every step can be repeated: take the series from FRED, apply the formula above, and calculate the error over the stated window.
// SCENARIOS
3 scenarios when the data comes out
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
Comes in ABOVE the market forecast
What it means
Inflation is stickier than expected. The chance of Fed cuts is pushed back, and in a bad case the market starts talking about hikes again.
How the market usually reacts
Real yields rise, the dollar strengthens and gold usually falls — the most counter-intuitive point for newcomers, since books still teach that gold is an inflation hedge. The interest-rate channel usually beats the safe-haven channel in the immediate reaction.
No change to the policy path. The market moves on to dissect the groups inside, especially shelter and services, because those decide the trend over the next few months.
How the market usually reacts
Price often jumps and then retraces. But CPI has its own habit: the second reaction after 15 to 30 minutes, once trading desks have read the detail, quite often goes the opposite way to the first.
Symbols · direction by mechanism, measured range
XAUUSD•DXY•EURUSD•USDJPY•BTCUSD•
Comes in BELOW the market forecast
What it means
Inflation is cooling faster than expected. The path to rate cuts widens.
How the market usually reacts
The dollar usually weakens, gold is supported, and risk assets breathe easier. This is the only scenario where gold and stocks usually move in the same direction.
The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
// RANGE
How much each symbol moves in the release hour
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
DXYCLEARLY SENSITIVE
Chỉ số đô la Mỹ
Typical range in the release hour0.32%
Release hour0.32%
Normal hour0.13%
Times the normal hour
2.4×
80% of cases below
0.47%
Largest measured
0.55%
Measurements
22
CPI is the data with the most direct effect on rate expectations, so the dollar reacts almost instantly.
EURUSDCLEARLY SENSITIVE
Euro / Đô la
Typical range in the release hour0.31%
Release hour0.31%
Normal hour0.13%
Times the normal hour
2.4×
80% of cases below
0.48%
Largest measured
0.61%
Measurements
23
Reflects the policy gap between the Fed and the European Central Bank.
USDJPYCLEARLY SENSITIVE
Đô la / Yên Nhật
Typical range in the release hour0.4%
Release hour0.4%
Normal hour0.16%
Times the normal hour
2.4×
80% of cases below
0.56%
Largest measured
0.79%
Measurements
23
BTCUSDSLIGHTLY SENSITIVE
Bitcoin
Typical range in the release hour0.82%
Release hour0.82%
Normal hour0.5%
Times the normal hour
1.6×
80% of cases below
2.05%
Largest measured
2.52%
Measurements
23
Its link to US macro is much looser than gold's and currencies', and it changes by phase: in some periods it moves with tech stocks as a risk asset, in others it almost ignores macro news. Do not read it as a version of gold.
XAUUSDSLIGHTLY SENSITIVE
Vàng
Typical range in the release hour0.77%
Release hour0.77%
Normal hour0.5%
Times the normal hour
1.5×
80% of cases below
1.1%
Largest measured
2.28%
Measurements
22
Worth watching separately: the first move on the headline and the second move after the market reads the group detail often go opposite ways.
Measured over 24 tháng gần nhất: take the 1-hour candle containing the exact release time, calculate its high–low range, then compare it with the median range of the same hour on days without news. It is compared with the same hour rather than the daily average, because 19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) is already when the US session opens. Source: FRED · lịch công bố chính thức · Yahoo Finance · nến 1 giờ. These are past measurements, not a prediction of the next range.
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The change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services. 2 versions are released at the same time: headline CPI, including food and energy; and core CPI, which leaves those 2 groups out because they swing for reasons unrelated to monetary policy. The market watches core CPI more.
Why this release is strong
Inflation is the Fed's other mandate. While inflation has not returned to the 2% target, every discussion of rate cuts hangs on CPI. A CPI print 0.1 percentage point off the forecast is enough to shift rate expectations for the whole year.
// MECHANISM
From the number to the gold price, through which steps
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
Higher-than-forecast inflation → the Fed has to keep rates high for longer → real yields rise → the dollar strengthens → gold comes under pressure, even though gold is still seen as an inflation hedge. This paradox makes CPI the release where textbook theory most often leads newcomers the wrong way: high inflation does not automatically push gold up, because the interest-rate channel usually beats the safe-haven channel.
// READING_THE_NUMBERS
The numbers in the release
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
CPI m/m
Versus the previous month. This is the number most sensitive to short-term moves.
CPI y/y
Versus the same period last year. This is the number that makes the headlines.
Core CPI
Excludes food and energy. If headline and core point in opposite directions, the market usually follows core.
Shelter
The largest weight and very slow to react. This is why CPI often falls more slowly than people actually feel.
// TRAPS
Where people often lose money around this release
!
The news is already priced in
If the number matches the forecast exactly, price can still move strongly — because the market had bet on a result different from the forecast.
!
A reversal after 15 minutes
The first reaction is a reflex to the headline. The second reaction, after people read the detail by group, is often the opposite.
!
Confusing CPI with PPI
PPI comes out close by and is also inflation, but at the producer stage, with a much weaker impact.
// WITH_A_BOT
If you are running an EA during this window
CPI and NFP are the two time windows most worth putting in an EA Trading Bot operator's calendar. For a trend-following system, a news-driven price jump can trigger an entry signal based on a candle that represents no trend at all.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
// FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What time is US CPI released?+
19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) during US summer time and 20:30 in winter, usually between the 10th and 15th of each month. The BLS publishes the exact dates for the whole year in advance.
How is core CPI different from regular CPI?+
Core CPI removes food and energy from the basket. These 2 groups swing strongly because of weather, seasons and war — things monetary policy cannot address. The Fed looks at core to read the real inflation trend.
Does high CPI push gold up or down?+
There is no fixed answer, and anyone who states one direction with certainty is oversimplifying. Gold faces 2 opposing forces: as an inflation hedge it benefits, but high inflation pushes real yields up and that makes gold less attractive. In recent years the interest-rate channel has usually won.
// READ_TOGETHER
Releases often read together
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
Knowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
