Producer Price Index
Inflation at the producer stage. It comes out near CPI with a weaker impact, but it is an early clue for core PCE.
Calendar rule: Near the CPI release date, usually a day just before or after, 8:30 a.m. New York time.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
This is a statistical estimate from public data, not an internal forecast and not a trading recommendation. Every step can be repeated: take the series from FRED, apply the formula above, and calculate the error over the stated window.
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
Business input costs are rising faster than expected, signaling consumer inflation pressure in the coming months.
The reaction is usually short. Its larger value is that it makes the market revise its expectations for the CPI that comes out a few days later.
XAUUSD▼~0.57%DXY▲~0.25%USOIL▲~0.71%No change to the inflation picture.
Almost no significant volatility. The market goes back to waiting for CPI.
XAUUSD•DXY•USOIL•Cost pressure is easing, an early signal that consumer inflation is cooling.
The dollar may weaken slightly. The clearest effect is indirect: PPI's transportation and healthcare services components flow straight into the core PCE calculation.
XAUUSD▲~0.57%DXY▼~0.25%USOIL▼~0.71%The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
DXYCLEARLY SENSITIVEA small reaction, unless it deviates very far from the forecast.
XAUUSDALMOST UNCHANGEDModerately sensitive. PPI is one step further from consumers, so its effect is clearly weaker than CPI's.
USOILALMOST UNCHANGEDEnergy prices are both an input to PPI and affected in reverse by growth expectations, so the two are linked both ways.
Measured over 24 tháng gần nhất: take the 1-hour candle containing the exact release time, calculate its high–low range, then compare it with the median range of the same hour on days without news. It is compared with the same hour rather than the daily average, because 19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) is already when the US session opens. Source: FRED · lịch công bố chính thức · Yahoo Finance · nến 1 giờ. These are past measurements, not a prediction of the next range.
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Order an EA for this releaseThe change in the prices producers receive for their goods and services — that is, inflation before it reaches consumers. The idea behind it: when input costs rise, sooner or later they pass into retail prices.
Some PPI components are used directly to calculate core PCE. So analysts use PPI plus CPI to estimate PCE before PCE comes out. That is the real value of PPI, rather than the number itself.
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
The same channel as CPI but much weaker: rising production costs → future inflation pressure → expectations of a more cautious Fed. The price reaction is usually short, unless PPI deviates very far from the forecast or comes out before CPI and makes the market adjust its CPI expectations.
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
Versus the previous month.
Excludes food and energy, the same logic as core CPI.
These are the components that flow straight into core PCE — the part analysts actually read.
Both are inflation, but PPI is one step further from consumers. The reaction is usually much smaller.
In months when PPI comes first, it can make the market revise its CPI expectations a few days later — and then CPI reacts differently from what was first expected.
Usually not strong enough to require switching an EA Trading Bot off. It is more noteworthy because it often lands close to CPI day, creating two volatile days back to back in the same week.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
PPI measures the prices producers receive, CPI measures the prices consumers pay. PPI comes earlier in the chain, so it is seen as an early signal, but not every cost increase can be passed into retail prices.
Usually not, unless it deviates very far from the forecast. In most months, PPI creates a short move and then the market goes back to waiting for CPI.
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
The most watched inflation measure. While the Fed is still worried about inflation, CPI hits harder than even NFP.
How to read this releaseThe inflation measure the Fed itself targets. Less famous than CPI but more important for policy.
How to read this releaseKnowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
