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VERY HIGH IMPACT
Non-Farm Payrolls · NFP
Non-Farm Employment Change
The most awaited release of the month. One release contains 3 numbers at once, and all three can move price.
Released by
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Frequency
Once a month
GMT+7 · US summer time
19:30 GMT+7
GMT+7 · US winter time
20:30 GMT+7
Calendar rule: First Friday of the month, 8:30 a.m. New York time.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
Next release in2026-11-06 at 20:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7)
Model estimate50.67K68% confidence interval: -57.56K → 158.9K
Previous (actual)29K2026-09-01
Market expectation—not yet on the ForexFactory calendar this week
Probabilities, calculated from the historical error distribution of this model itself
This is a statistical estimate from public data, not an internal forecast and not a trading recommendation. Every step can be repeated: take the series from FRED, apply the formula above, and calculate the error over the stated window.
// SCENARIOS
3 scenarios when the data comes out
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
Comes in ABOVE the market forecast
What it means
The labor market is hotter than expected. The Fed has more reason to keep rates high for longer, because cutting while jobs are still strong would reignite inflation.
How the market usually reacts
US Treasury yields usually rise first, the dollar strengthens with them, and gold comes under pressure because holding gold earns no interest. But if hourly wage growth is weak in the same release, the initial reaction is often reversed within 15 minutes.
No new information about the policy direction. The market turns to the secondary parts: the unemployment rate, wage growth, and the revisions to the previous 2 months.
How the market usually reacts
The move is usually short and price returns to its pre-release zone. This is the scenario most likely to cause losses for people trading the news, because they paid a wide spread for a move that went nowhere.
Symbols · direction by mechanism, measured range
XAUUSD•DXY•EURUSD•USDJPY•BTCUSD•
Comes in BELOW the market forecast
What it means
Labor is cooling. The market raises its bets that the Fed will have to cut rates sooner to support the economy.
How the market usually reacts
The dollar usually weakens and gold is supported. There is a role-reversal threshold: if the data is so bad that the market shifts from thinking 'the Fed will cut' to fearing a real recession, the dollar can strengthen again as money runs to safety.
The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
// RANGE
How much each symbol moves in the release hour
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
USDJPYVERY SENSITIVE
Đô la / Yên Nhật
Typical range in the release hour0.58%
Release hour0.58%
Normal hour0.16%
Times the normal hour
3.6×
80% of cases below
0.9%
Largest measured
1.35%
Measurements
23
The pair most sensitive to the rate gap, since Japan has kept rates very low for a long time. Whatever the yield gap changes by, this pair reflects almost immediately.
DXYVERY SENSITIVE
Chỉ số đô la Mỹ
Typical range in the release hour0.4%
Release hour0.4%
Normal hour0.13%
Times the normal hour
3×
80% of cases below
0.56%
Largest measured
1.33%
Measurements
21
The first and fastest reaction, because NFP goes straight into Fed rate expectations.
EURUSDVERY SENSITIVE
Euro / Đô la
Typical range in the release hour0.38%
Release hour0.38%
Normal hour0.13%
Times the normal hour
3×
80% of cases below
0.59%
Largest measured
1.41%
Measurements
23
The deepest liquidity, so the least slippage, but its percentage range is usually smaller than gold's.
XAUUSDCLEARLY SENSITIVE
Vàng
Typical range in the release hour1.05%
Release hour1.05%
Normal hour0.5%
Times the normal hour
2.1×
80% of cases below
1.62%
Largest measured
2.32%
Measurements
21
The most sensitive to NFP among the common assets traded in Vietnam. Gold pays no interest, so every change in US rate expectations directly affects the opportunity cost of holding it.
BTCUSDSLIGHTLY SENSITIVE
Bitcoin
Typical range in the release hour0.82%
Release hour0.82%
Normal hour0.5%
Times the normal hour
1.6×
80% of cases below
1.29%
Largest measured
2.66%
Measurements
23
Its link to US macro is much looser than gold's and currencies', and it changes by phase: in some periods it moves with tech stocks as a risk asset, in others it almost ignores macro news. Do not read it as a version of gold.
Measured over 24 tháng gần nhất: take the 1-hour candle containing the exact release time, calculate its high–low range, then compare it with the median range of the same hour on days without news. It is compared with the same hour rather than the daily average, because 19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) is already when the US session opens. Source: FRED · lịch công bố chính thức · Yahoo Finance · nến 1 giờ. These are past measurements, not a prediction of the next range.
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The number of new jobs in the US economy last month, excluding agriculture. The same release also includes the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth. These 3 numbers come out in the same second, and they can contradict each other — which is why the market's reaction to NFP is often more chaotic than to other releases.
Why this release is strong
The Fed has 2 legal mandates: maximum employment and stable prices. NFP is the most direct measure of the first. The market does not read NFP as a jobs number — it reads it as a vote on whether the Fed will cut rates quickly or slowly.
// MECHANISM
From the number to the gold price, through which steps
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
Stronger-than-forecast jobs → a hot economy → less reason for the Fed to cut rates → US Treasury yields rise → the dollar strengthens → gold (priced in dollars, paying no interest) usually comes under pressure. This chain is correct in theory and fails often in practice, because the market has already priced part of it in and because the 3 numbers in the release can point in opposite directions.
// READING_THE_NUMBERS
The numbers in the release
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
New jobs
In thousands of people. The familiar psychological mark is 150K — below it, the market starts talking about a cooling labor market.
Unemployment rate
A percentage. A 0.1-point rise sounds small but is a big move for this figure.
Hourly wage growth
Percent versus the previous month. This is the bridge to inflation — fast wage growth feeds services inflation.
Revisions to the previous 2 months
The BLS often revises old numbers. A good headline with a sharp downward revision to the previous month is bad news in disguise.
// TRAPS
Where people often lose money around this release
!
Spreads widen just before the release
Many brokers widen the XAUUSD spread from a few dozen cents to a few dollars in the 30 seconds around 19:30. An order placed right then pays many times the normal cost.
!
Two-way sweeps
The first candle often stabs one way and then reverses within 1 to 2 minutes. Tight stop-losses get swept before the real direction appears.
!
Slippage
Market orders in the first minute can fill far from the price you see. Stop-losses slip too — the actual loss exceeds what you planned.
// WITH_A_BOT
If you are running an EA during this window
This is the time window of the month where switching an EA Trading Bot off deserves the most consideration. Not because the EA Trading Bot is bad, but because trading costs in those 3 minutes are unlike the rest of the month: wide spreads, slippage, stop-losses not holding their level. A system with a thin edge has that edge eaten by poor execution conditions.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
// FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What time is Non-Farm Payrolls released?+
19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) during US summer time (roughly March to November) and 20:30 in winter, always on the first Friday of the month. The US changes its clocks 2 times a year, so this time shifts by an hour; check the calendar again in a week when the clocks change.
What is a good NFP number?+
There is no absolute threshold. The market reacts to the gap between the actual number and the level it is waiting for in the forecast, not to the number itself. A 120K print can be good news if the forecast was 80K, and bad news if the forecast was 180K.
Should I trade during the NFP release?+
DinexSpace does not recommend entering trades on the news. The reason is purely technical: in the few minutes around the release, spreads widen, orders slip, and stop-losses do not fill at the level you set. That means the risk you calculated beforehand is no longer the real risk.
// READ_TOGETHER
Releases often read together
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
Knowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
