Gross Domestic Product
The overall measure of the whole economy. Important by nature but slow to arrive, so the market reacts moderately.
Calendar rule: 8:30 a.m. New York time, the first estimate about a month after the quarter ends.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
This is a statistical estimate from public data, not an internal forecast and not a trading recommendation. Every step can be repeated: take the series from FRED, apply the formula above, and calculate the error over the stated window.
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
The economy grew faster than expected last quarter.
The dollar is supported. But the immediate effect is usually smaller than the index's importance, because GDP describes a past the monthly data has already mostly predicted.
XAUUSD▼~0.58%DXY▲~0.18%US500▲No new information.
Almost no volatility. Sometimes the accompanying GDP price index, not the growth number, is what moves price.
XAUUSD•DXY•US500•Growth is weaker than expected. If the monthly data is weak too, the recession story is triggered.
The dollar usually weakens. The size of the reaction depends heavily on whether this data confirms a trend that has already formed.
XAUUSD▲~0.58%DXY▼~0.18%US500▼The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
DXYSLIGHTLY SENSITIVEA moderate reaction, usually short.
XAUUSDALMOST UNCHANGEDLess sensitive than the monthly releases, because GDP is slow and mostly already in the price.
Measured over 24 tháng gần nhất: take the 1-hour candle containing the exact release time, calculate its high–low range, then compare it with the median range of the same hour on days without news. It is compared with the same hour rather than the daily average, because 19:30 Vietnam time (GMT+7) is already when the US session opens. Source: FRED · lịch công bố chính thức · Yahoo Finance · nến 1 giờ. These are past measurements, not a prediction of the next range.
9 EAs for rent, all trading XAUUSD. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page. Look at the backtest figures before you decide.
See the 9 EA Trading Bots for rentDo you want to trade around GDP, or stay out? DinexSpace writes exactly that set of rules, with a time filter based on the release calendar.
Order an EA for this releaseThe total value of goods and services the economy produced in the quarter. The same quarter is released 3 times: the first advance estimate, then 2 revisions as more data arrives. The first estimate causes the biggest reaction; the next 2 are usually almost ignored unless the revision is large.
This is the official definition of growth, and the number in the definition of recession the press likes to use. But it describes the past — the quarter just ended — while the market trades the future. So its immediate impact is usually smaller than its importance.
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
Stronger-than-forecast growth → a healthy economy → less pressure on the Fed to cut rates → the dollar is supported. The release also includes the GDP price index; sometimes the inflation part in it, not the growth number, is what moves the market.
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
The US reports at an annualized pace, so the number looks larger than the way many other countries calculate it.
3 releases for the same quarter. Usually only the first creates significant volatility.
The accompanying inflation part. In some months it is the real news.
True academically, not in terms of price reaction. GDP describes a past that the monthly data has already mostly predicted.
The calendar shows three GDP lines each quarter. Only the first one is worth putting in your calendar.
Usually no specific action needed. GDP's value to an EA Trading Bot operator lies in the review afterwards: did the economy grow or slow last quarter, and what context were the bot's results for that quarter in.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
3 times: the advance estimate, the second estimate, and the final estimate. The advance estimate comes out about a month after the quarter ends and is the only one that usually creates significant volatility.
Because by the time GDP comes out, the market has already read all the monthly data for that quarter and estimated it fairly accurately. News that is no longer new no longer creates volatility.
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
Are Americans still spending? Consumption is about two thirds of the US economy, so this is a direct health check.
How to read this releaseA survey of purchasing managers. It comes out first in the month and is the first release to show how last month went.
How to read this releaseKnowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
