ISM Manufacturing PMI · ISM Services PMI
A survey of purchasing managers. It comes out first in the month and is the first release to show how last month went.
Calendar rule: Manufacturing: the first business day of the month. Services: the third business day. Both at 10:00 a.m. New York time.
A statistical estimate from FRED's source data series, with the model's real error when run back over history. No internal forecast, and no number set by hand.
There is not enough source data from FRED to run the model right now. When there is not enough data, no number is published.
These describe the usual impact channels, not predictions. The same result can still produce opposite reactions in two different phases of the cycle.
Purchasing managers are more optimistic than expected. Because it is a survey, it runs ahead of the hard data.
The dollar is usually supported. The input-price component sometimes causes a stronger reaction than the headline number, because it is an early clue to inflation.
XAUUSD▼DXY▲USOIL▲No change to the picture. The 50 mark is what is worth watching: above is expansion, below is contraction.
A short move, usually within the daily range.
XAUUSD•DXY•USOIL•Economic activity is slowing, especially if the index falls below 50.
The dollar usually weakens. Because ISM comes out first in the month, it sets the tone for the whole run of data after it.
XAUUSD▲DXY▼USOIL▼The arrow is the direction by mechanism — derived from the chain data → rate expectations → the dollar, not a prediction. The percentage is the measured range in the release hour over the past 24 months, not where price will go. This mechanism still fails often, especially when the secondary numbers in the same release point in opposite directions.
Not ranked by feel. Each sensitivity level below is the measured ratio between the release-hour range and the range of the same hour on normal days.
The release calendar could not be loaded from FRED yet.
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Order an EA for this releaseSurvey results from purchasing managers on orders, output, employment and input prices. The 50 mark is the dividing line: above 50 is expansion, below 50 is contraction. The services release matters more than manufacturing for the US economy, because services make up most of the economy, but the manufacturing release is watched more out of habit.
This is the earliest data of the month, ahead of even NFP. Because it is a survey, it reflects the expectations of people in the industry rather than accounting data — and expectations usually run ahead of reality.
A description of the mechanism, along with why it often does not play out.
PMI above 50 and rising → the economy is expanding → the dollar is supported. The input-price component of the survey is also an early clue for inflation; sometimes that part causes a stronger reaction than the headline number.
A release rarely has just one number, and the headline number is not always the most important one.
Above is expansion, below is contraction. This mark matters more than a change of a few tenths.
The most leading part of the survey.
An early clue to inflation pressure.
Comes a few days later and is closer to the US economy than manufacturing.
Manufacturing is a small part of the US economy. The services release says more about real health.
A PMI going from 47 to 49 is still contraction, just slower contraction.
The 21:00 release falls in the middle of the US session, when many EAs are active. The move is usually short but enough to create an off-pattern candle.
DinexSpace's EAs do not read the news calendar themselves. Each EA publishes its trading hours on its page; switching it on or off around news is the operator's manual decision.
It means more businesses report better activity than last month than report worse — so that sector is expanding. Below 50 is contraction. The 50 mark matters more than the specific number.
21:00 Vietnam time (GMT+7) during US summer time and 22:00 in winter. Manufacturing on the first business day of the month, services on the third business day.
These releases belong to the same story; reading one alone easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
The most awaited release of the month. One release contains 3 numbers at once, and all three can move price.
How to read this releaseThe overall measure of the whole economy. Important by nature but slow to arrive, so the market reacts moderately.
How to read this releaseKnowing the release times helps you avoid bad windows. But when to enter and where to stop out still need a set of rules. See the economic cycle clock for the wider context.
